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CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR .hk 31 Mar 2022 China Catering Sector Walter Woo (852) 3761 8776 .hk Raphael Tse (852) 3900 0856 .hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 8,644 Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 25.20 52w High/Low (HK$) 18.98/3.65 Total Issued Shares (mn) 1,715.1 Source: Bloomberg Shareholding Structure Mr. Zhao Lin & Ms. Peng Xin 56.98% Tiantu Capital 11.09% Employee incentive platform 5.35% PAGAC Nebula 5.28% Shenzhen Capital Group 2.82% Free Float 18.47% Source: HKEx Share Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -18.4% -16.7% 3-mth -41.1% -38.8% 6-mth -55.2% -50.5% 12-mth n/a n/a Source: Bloomberg 12-mth Price Performance Source: Bloomberg Auditor: KPMG Related Reports 1. Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK, HOLD) SSSG recover in 4Q21, but we remain cautious 10 Jan 2022 2. Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK, HOLD) Softening demand and operating deleverage 1 Nov 2021 0 . 05. 010 .01 5 .020 .025 .0 S t oc k HS I(HK$)Target Price HK$5.69 (Previous TP HK$7.83) Up/Downside 12.9% Current Price HK$5.04 HOLD (Maintain) 1 Maintain HOLD and lower TP to HK$ 5.69, based on our DCF model which implies a 64x FY22E P/E and 1.4x FY22E P/S. While we are excited about its digitalization program, we stay cautious under covid-19 outbreaks and intense competition on pricing. Current valuation of 57x FY22E P/E is rich, but the 1.3x FY22E P/S is not so demanding (industry median at 1.6x), in our view. FY21 result missed slightly. In FY21, Nayukis sales grew by 41% YoY to RMB 4.3bn in FY21, inline with CMBI est. but missing BBG est. by 11% , while adjusted net losses was at RMB 144mn, below CMBI/ BBG est. losses of RMB 116mn/ 73mn, consist of better than expected GP margin, lower than expected other income and higher than expected opex (esp. delivery fees). Introducing more products priced between RMB 9 to 19. Following the pricing adjustments by Heytea in Feb 2022, Nayuki also enlarged its price range by introducing the “light series” menu with products priced between RMB 9 to 19 in mid-Mar 2022. Management pointed out that this action had gained them more traffic from a new group of customers while the sales of the originally high-end products remained fairly stable. FY22E is the year of digitalization, where efficiency should be boosted meaningfully. Nayuki is now rolling out more digitalization/ automations (which were planned before the IPO) such as: 1) in-store crew scheduling, 2) inventory management and ordering system and 3) automated tea drinks maker. These should all be used in most of the stores by 3Q22E. Based on the current observations, efficiency and staff costs at the pilot stores have all be refined significantly. Target of 350 new store (mostly PRO stores) openings in FY22E remains. Store level OP margin for the Type I/ II PRO stores were only at 9.8%/ 6.2%, still below regular stores 17.5%. However, management do believe the profitability can improve substantially and become higher once the PRO stores become more mature (esp. when Nayuki is now demanding for much more favourable rental terms for new contracts). Hence, Nayuki is keeping its expansion plan in FY22E. Maintain HOLD and revised down TP to HK$ 5.69. We revised down our FY22E/ 23E net profit est. by 33%/ 4% to factor in: 1) recent Covid-19 outbreaks, 2) higher-than-expected GP margin but 3) greater-than-expected opex. Our TP is based on DCF method (12.2% WACC and 3.0% terminal growth, cut from 10.3% and 2.0%), which implies a 1.4x FY22E P/S. It is trading at 1.3x FY22E P/S vs China peers median of 1.6x. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Revenue (RMB mn) 3,057 4,297 5,621 7,325 9,226 YoY growth (%) 22.2 40.5 30.8 30.3 25.9 EBITDA (RMB mn) 227 118 485 856 1,289 NP att. (RMB mn) (202) (4,525) 104 324 617 Adj. NP (RMB mn) 26 (144) 127 339 635 Adj. EPS (RMB) 0.015 (0.084) 0.074 0.198 0.370 YoY growth (%) (360.4) (662.7) (187.9) 167.4 87.4 Consensus EPS (RMB) n/a n/a 0.128 0.309 0.515 Adjusted P/E (x) 279.9 (49.7) 56.6 21.2 11.3 P/S (x) 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 ROE (%) n/a (123.9) 2.8 7.9 13.1 Net gearing (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Nayuki Holdings Limited (2150 HK) Looking forward to the digitalization in FY22E 31 Mar 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 1Q22E sales trend remained subdued. Due to the series of covid-19 outbreaks and Nayukis heavy exposure to SZ and SH, we expect the SSS to decline by 10-20% during Jan Feb 2022 (vs YUMCs 4% drop) and by 30%+ so far in Mar 2022 (vs YUMCs 20% drop). This would certainly create significant drags and hence we have cut our FY22E net profit forecast by 33%. Management highlighted a strong recovery once the lockdown in SZ expired but conditions in many other places in China are still tough. Earnings revision Figure 1: Earnings revision New Old Diff (%) RMB mn FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E Revenue 5,621 7,325 9,226 5,897 7,719 n/a -4.7% -5.1% n/a Gross profit 3,721 4,869 6,151 3,909 5,136 n/a -4.8% -5.2% n/a EBIT 249 533 898 318 542 n/a -21.5% -1.7% n/a Adjusted NP att. 127 339 635 190 353 n/a -33.4% -3.9% n/a Adjusted EPS (RMB) 0.074 0.198 0.370 0.111 0.206 n/a -33.3% -3.9% n/a Gross margin 66.2% 66.5% 66.7% 66.3% 66.5% n/a -0.1ppt -0.1ppt n/a EBIT margin 4.4% 7.3% 9.7% 5.4% 7.0% n/a -1ppt 0.3ppt n/a Net profit att. margin 2.3% 4.6% 6.9% 3.2% 4.6% n/a -1ppt 0.1ppt n/a Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Figure 2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensus CMBIGM Consensus Diff (%) RMB mn FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E Revenue 5,621 7,325 9,226 7,286 9,648 12,199 -22.9% -24.1% -24.4% Gross profit 3,721 4,869 6,151 4,804 6,383 8,223 -22.5% -23.7% -25.2% EBIT 249 533 898 414 754 1,688 -39.8% -29.4% -46.8% Adjusted NP att. 127 339 635 249 540 883 -49.2% -37.3% -28.0% Adjusted EPS (RMB) 0.074 0.198 0.370 0.128 0.309 0.515 -42.0% -36.1% -28.0% Gross margin 66.2% 66.5% 66.7% 65.9% 66.2% 67.4% 0.3ppt 0.3ppt -0.7ppt EBIT margin 4.4% 7.3% 9.7% 5.7% 7.8% 13.8% -1.2ppt -0.5ppt -4.1ppt Net profit att. margin 2.3% 4.6% 6.9% 3.4% 5.6% 7.2% -1.2ppt -1ppt -0.4ppt Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates 31 Mar 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 3 Results summary Figure 3: Results review Half Year Half yearly (RMB mn) 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H21 YoY 2H21 YoY 2H21E CMBIGM Actual vs CMBIGM Revenue 1,180 1,878 2,126 2,171 80% 16% 2,099 3% COGS (466) (693) (669) (732) (770) Gross profit 714 1,184 1,457 1,439 104% 22% 1,330 8% GP margins 60.5% 63.1% 68.5% 66.3% 63.3% 2.9ppt Other income & gains 76 130 9 19 37 -50% Staff costs (368) (552) (670) (755) 82% 37% (747) 1% Staff costs / sales -31.2% -29.4% -31.5% -34.8% -35.6% Dep.of ROU assets expenses (166) (187) (202) (218) 21% 17% (214) 2% Dep. of ROU assets exp / sales -14.1% -9.9% -9.5% -10.1% -10.2% Other rentals expenses (26) (74) (94) (119) 256% 60% (99) 20% Other rentals exp / sales -2.2% -4.0% -4.4% -5.5% -4.7% D & A of other assets (70) (84) (95) (109) 36% 30% (123) -12% D & A of other assets exp / sales -6.0% -4.5% -4.5% -5.0% -5.9% A & P expenses (22) (60) (37) (74) 68% 24% (72) 2% A & P exp / sales -1.9% -3.2% -1.8% -3.4% -3.4% Delivery service fees (65) (102) (112) (147) 71% 44% (92) 61% Delivery service fees / sales -5.5% -5.4% -5.3% -6.8% -4.4% Utilities expenses (27) (40) (39) (51) 45% 29% (58) -11% Utilities exp / sales -2.3% -2.1% -1.8% -2.4% -2.8% Logistic & storage fees (23) (34) (42) (49) 80% 45% (43) 14% Logistic & storage fees / sales -2.0% -1.8% -2.0% -2.3% -2.0% Other opex (47) (76) (84) (93) (94) -1% Operating profit (EBIT) -26 106 91 -158 -456% -249% -176 -10% OP margins -2.2% 5.6% 4.3% -7.3% -8.4% 1.1ppt Other items (4) (137) (12) (4,360) (14) Net finance income (60) (71) (46) (45) (46) Net finance income / sales -5.1% -3.8% -2.2% -2.1% -2.2% Profit after financing costs (89) (101) 34 (4,563) (235) Associated coms 0 0 0 0 0 Jointly controlled coms 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit -89 -101 34 -4,563 -138% 4412% -235 1842% Tax 13 (26) (26) 30 56 Tax / sales 1.1% -1.4% -1.2% 1.4% 2.7% Effective tax rate -14.7% 26.0% -76.7% -0.7% -23.8% Minority interests (1) 0 0 (1) (2) Net profit att. (74) (127) 8 (4,532) -110% 3458% (177) 2460% NP margins -6.3% -6.8% 0.4% -209% -8.4% -200.4ppt Adjusted Net profit att. (62) 88 48 (192) -178% -318% (165) 17% Adjusted NP att. margin -5.3% 4.7% 2.3% -8.9% -7.8% Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates 31 Mar 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 4 Figure 4: Results review - Full Year Full yearly (RMB mn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY21 YoY FY22E YoY FY21E CMBIGM Actual vs CMBIGM Revenue 3,057 4,297 5,621 41% 31% 4,225 1.7% COGS (1,159) (1,401) (1,900) (1,439) Gross profit 1,898 2,896 3,721 53% 29% 2,787 3.9% GP margins 62.1% 67.4% 66.2% 66.0% 1.4ppt Other income & gains 206 27 79 46 -40.2% Staff costs (919) (1,424) (1,622) 55% 14% (1,417) 0.5% Staff costs / sales -30.1% -33.2% -28.9% -33.5% Dep.of ROU assets expenses (353) (420) (543) 19% 29% (416) 1.0% Dep. of ROU assets exp / sales -11.5% -9.8% -9.7% -9.8% Other rentals expenses (101) (213) (244) 112% 14% (193) 10.2% Other rentals exp / sales -3.3% -5.0% -4.3% -4.6% D & A of other assets (154) (204) (297) 32% 45% (218) -6.5% D & A of other assets exp / sales -5.0% -4.7% -5.3% -5.2% A & P expenses (82) (112) (141) 36% 26% (110) 1.6% A & P exp / sales -2.7% -2.6% -2.5% -2.6% Delivery service fees (167) (259) (316) 55% 22% (203) 27.4% Delivery service fees / sales -5.5% -6.0% -5.6% -4.8% Utilities expenses (67) (91) (107) 36% 18% (97) -6.6% Utilities exp / sales -2.2% -2.1% -1.9% -2.3% Logistic & storage fees (57) (91) (96) 60% 6% (85) 7.1% Logistic & storage fees / sales -1.9% -2.1% -1.7% -2.0% Other opex (124) (176) (185) 43% 5% (177) -0.6% Operating profit (EBIT) 80 -67 250 -183% -475% -84 -20.9% OP margins 2.6% -1.5% 4.4% -2.0% 0.4ppt Other items (140) (4,372) (6) (25.4) Net finance income (130) (92) (120) (92) Net finance income / sales -4.3% -2.1% -2.1% -2.2% Profit after financing costs (190) (4,530) 124 (201) Associated coms 0 0 0 0 Jointly controlled coms 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit -190 -4,530 124 2283% -103% -201 2149% Tax (13) 4 (19) 30 Tax / sales -0.4% 0.1% -0.3% 0.7% Effective tax rate 6.9% -0.1% -15.0% -15.0% Minority interests (1) (1) 1 (2) Net profit att. (202) (4,525) 104 2141% -102% (169.2) 2574% NP margins -6.6% -105% 1.9% -4.0% -101.3ppt Adjusted Net profit att. 26 (144) 127 -655% -188% (116.5) 23.8% Adjusted NP att. margin 0.9% -3.4% 2.3% -2.8% Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates 31 Mar 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 5 Assumptions Figure 5: Major assumptions 1 Major assumptions FY19A FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Sales by brand (RMB mn) Nayuki 2,291 2,871 4,067 5,345 7,004 8,867 Tai Gai 185 153 141 179 215 242 Others 25 33 88 97 106 117 Total 2,502 3,057 4,297 5,621 7,325 9,226 Sales growth by brand segment Nayuki 151.9% 25.3% 41.7% 31.4% 31.0% 26.6% Tai Gai 18.9% -17.4% -7.5% 26.7% 20.2% 12.4% Others 15.3% 34.1% 163.7% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Total 130.2% 22.2% 40.5% 30.8% 30.3% 25.9% Sales by channel growth In-store cashier & others 74.3% -45.0% 31.1% -37.6% 12.0% -5.9% WeChat/ Alipay & Nayuki app n/a 285.3% 20.2% 106.4% 44.3% 37.7% 3rd party online ordering platforms 412.6% 99.2% 79.3% 15.0% 14.8% 14.7% Total 130.2% 22.2% 40.5% 30.8% 30.3% 25.9% Nayuki brands store network Tier 1 cities 138 170 280 398 526 654 New Tier 1 cities 119 170 282 387 507 639 Tier 2 cities 62 122 187 282 382 482 Other cities 8 29 68 111 159 214 Total 327 491 817 1,178 1,574 1,989 GP margins 63.4% 62.1% 67.4% 66.2% 66.5% 66.7% Opex breakdown Staff costs -30.0% -30.1% -33.2% -28.9% -27.4% -26.5% Depreciation of right-of-use assets -10.5% -11.5% -9.8% -9.7% -9.0% -8.5% Other rentals & related expenses -5.1% -3.3% -5.0% -4.3% -3.9% -3.6% D & A of other assets -3.7% -5.0% -4.7% -5.3% -5.2% -4.9% Advertising & promotion expenses -2.7% -2.7% -2.6% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% Delivery service fees -2.6% -5.5% -6.0% -5.6% -5.5% -5.2% Utilities expenses -2.1% -2.2% -2.1% -1.9% -1.9% -1.9% Logistic and storage fees -1.6% -1.9% -2.1% -1.7% -1.6% -1.6% EBIT margins 2.2% 2.6% -1.5% 4.4% 7.3% 9.7% Effective tax rate 7.1% -6.9% 0.1% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% NP att. margins -1.5% -6.6% -105.3% 1.9% 4.4% 6.7% NP att. growth (%) -41.6% 423.7% 2141.3% -102.3% 211.3% 90.2% Adj. NP margins -0.5% 0.8% -3.4% 2.3% 4.7% 7.0% Adj. NP growth (%) -79.3% -309.4% -691.2% -188.0% 168.0% 87.4% Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates 31 Mar 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 6 Our DCF method assumes - 29% sales CAGR in FY20-25E - 48% EBITDA CAGR in FY20-25E - 14.8% EBITDA margin in FY25 (from 7.4% in FY20) - 12.2% WACC (Lower than International peers avg. of 12.6% and Greater China leading peers avg. of 14.9%), based on 3.0% costs of debt, 12.3% risk premium, Beta of 0.8x, 15.5% cost of equity, Optimal debt/ equity ratio of 25%/ 75%. - 2.0% terminal growth. Figure 6: DCF-based valuation Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CMBIGM estimates Figure 7: DCF-based valuation - sensitivity test Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CMBIGM estimates DCF F Y 1 8 A F Y 1 9 A F Y 2 0 A F Y 2 1 A F Y 2 2 E F Y 2 3 E F Y 2 4 E F Y 2 5 EE B I T D A 39 143 227 118 485 856 1 , 2 8 9 1 , 6 3 3C h g i n w o r k i n g c a p 43 29 ( 9 ) 575 34 78 87 84A d j u s t e d t a x ( 1 ) ( 4 ) ( 4 ) 4 ( 3 7 ) ( 7 9 ) ( 1 3 3 ) ( 1 8 0 )C a p e x & p r o d u c t d e v ( 2 0 9 ) ( 2 9 0 ) ( 2 4 3 ) ( 3 8 7 ) ( 4 2 2 ) ( 4 5 4 ) ( 4 6 1 ) ( 4 4 2 )U n l e v e r a g e d F C F ( 1 2 8 ) ( 1 2 1 ) ( 3 0 ) 310 61 402 782 1 , 0 9 4 Y o Y %D C F ( 2 1 E - 2 5 E ) 1 , 7 1 9P V ( T e r m i n a l v a l u e ) 6 , 1 6 5E V ( E n d - 2 1 E ) 7 , 8 8 5C a s h f r o m o p t i o n s / w a r r a n t s c o n v 0Y e r - e n d n e t c a s h / ( d e b t s ) 218F u l l y d i l u t e d e q u i t y v a l u e ( E n d - 2 1 E ) 8 , 1 0 3F u l l y d i l u t e d n o . o f s h a r e s ( m ) 1 , 7 1 5M i n o r i t y i n t e r e s t s ( E n d - 2 1 E ) 0M a r k e t c a p ( E n d - 2 1 E ) 8 , 1 0 3E x c h a n g e r a t e 1 . 2 0 F u l l y d i l u t e d e q u i t y v a l u e / s h a r e ( H K $ ) 5 . 6 9 R i s k - f r e e r a t e 3 . 0 %R i s k p r e m i u m 1 5 . 5 %B e t a 0 . 8 0 C o s t o f e q u i t y 1 5 . 4 %C o s t o f d e b t 3 . 0 %T a x r a t e 1 5 . 0 %A f t e r - t a x c o s t o f d e b t 2 . 5 %D e b t t o t o t a l c a p i t a l 2 5 . 0 %W A C C 1 2 . 2 %T e r m i n a l g r o w t h 2 . 0 %F Y 2 2 E E V / E B I T D A 1 6 . 7F Y 2 2 E a d j . P / E 6 4 . 0F Y 2 2 E P / S 1 . 46 1 0 . 7 % 1 1 . 2 % 1 1 . 7 % 1 2 . 2 % 1 2 . 7 % 1 3 . 2 % 1 3 . 7 %0 . 5 % 5 . 9 9 5 . 6 6 5 . 3 5 5 . 0 8 4 . 8 3 4 . 6 0 4 . 3 91 . 0 % 6 . 2 5 5 . 8 9 5 . 5 6 5 . 2 7 5 . 0 0 4 . 7 5 4 . 5 31 . 5 % 6 . 5 3 6 . 1 4 5 . 7 9 5 . 4 7 5 . 1 8 4 . 9 2 4 . 6 82 . 0 % 6 . 8 5 6 . 4
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