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CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Economic Perspectives PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR .hk Bingnan YE, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 .hk Source: NBS, CMBIGM Source: NBS, CMBIGM Source: NBS, CMBIGM (35)(25)(15)(5)5152535452019 2020 2021 2022FA I in P r o p e r ty FA I in M a n u f a c t u r ingFA I in In f r a s t r u c tu r eY o Y ( % )(35)(30)(25)(20)(15)(10)(5)0510152019 2020 2021 2022FA I in P r o p e r ty FA I in M a n u f a c t u r ingFA I in In f r a s t r u c tu r eY o Y ( % , 2 / 3 Y C A GR f o r 2 0 2 1 / 2 0 2 2 )(35)(30)(25)(20)(15)(10)( 5)0510152019 2020 2021 2022E le c tr ic it y p r o d u c tio n S t e e l p r o d u c t io nC e men t p r o d u c tion P lat e g la s s p r o d u c tionYoY( % , 2 / 3 Y C AGR f o r 2 0 2 1 / 2 0 2 2 )31 Mar 2022 1 The state council held a meeting on 29 March, calling for accelerating government special bond issuance and infrastructure investment in 2Q-3Q22. We expect the fixed asset investment in infrastructure sector especially in energy, storage service, water conservancy and social housing may noticeably rebound in 9M22. The cabinet meeting indicates the policymakers are not optimistic about China economy. Infrastructure investment is considered as an important means to stabilize growth. The cabinet meeting may boost investors preference for those stocks with low valuation and high exposure to infrastructure projects in the short term. State council warned of rising downside risk for China economy. The cabinet said Chinas economy is facing new challenges with rising downward pressure. The pro-growth policy should be released sooner rather than later, while the policy with negative impact on market expectations should be avoided. China should make a policy plan to deal with greater uncertainty. Cabinet required accelerating issuance of local government special bond to boost infrastructure investment. The state council required the first batch of the special bond quota at RMB1.46tn must be used before the end of May, while the remaining quota at RMB2.19tn must be used before the end of September. Infrastructure investment may moderately rebound in 9M22. The state council said the fundraising from local government special bond will be mainly used in projects in transport, energy, environmental protection, social housing and water conservancy. The fixed asset investment (FAI) in infrastructure sector jumped 8.6% in 2M22 after rising 0.2% in 2021. We expect infrastructure investment may further rebound in 2Q-3Q22. However, the shrinkage of land revenue and strict control over local government contingent debt should restrain the upside room for infrastructure investment in the medium term. Which sectors have rapid FAI growth? In 2M22, leasing & business service, gas supply, storage service, water conservancy, information tech service, mining, manufacturing, education and scientific & tech service saw rapid growths at 20% or even higher. Due to the pandemic and property sector stress, tunnel transport, railway transport, water transport and construction experienced significant declines in FAI in the first two months. Which areas have high fiscal expenditure growth? In 2M22, fiscal expenditures on science & tech, transportation, energy saving & environmental protection, education and community development respectively rose 15.5%, 14%, 11.9%, 9.1% and 7.6%, compared to the growth of 7.2%, -6.2%, -12.6%, 3.5% and -2.5% in 2021. Implications for the stock market. The cabinet meeting indicates the policymakers are not optimistic about China economy. Infrastructure investment is considered as an important means to stabilize growth. The cabinet meeting may boost investors preference for those stocks with low valuation and high exposure to infrastructure projects in the short term. China Policy Cabinet calls for accelerating infrastructure investment 31 Mar 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 Figure 1: Chinas FAI Growth by Sector Source: NBS, CMBIGM Figure 2: Land Revenue & Infrastructure investment Source: WIND, CMBIGM Figure 3: Fiscal Expenses on Main Items Source: WIND, CMBIGM Figure 4: Input-Output Coefficient for Construction Source: WIND, CMBIGM Figure 5: PBOC Policy Rates Source: WIND, CMBIGM 31 Mar 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 3 Disclosures & Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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