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CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Economic Perspectives PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR .hk Bingnan YE, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 .hk Source: NBS, CMBIGM Source: NBS, CMBIGM Source: NBS, CMBIGM (30)(20)(10)01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022Mi n ing Man u fa c tu r in g P u b lic u t il it yOp e r a t ion inc o m e Y o Y ( % , Y TD )(30)(20)(10)01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022Mi n ing Man u fa c tu r in g P u b lic u t il it yOp e r a t ion inc o m e Y o Y ( % , Y TD )0510152025302019 2020 2021 2022M ining Man u fa c tu r in g P u b lic u t il it yTotal p r o f it a s % o f o p e r a t ion inc om e28 Apr 2022 1 Total profit of Chinas mining, manufacturing and public utility industries picked up 8.5% YoY in 1Q22 after rising 5% YoY in 2M22, due to commodity inflation and base effect. Different industries saw divergence of profit growth in March. Coal mining, oil & gas, nonferrous metal, food, beverage & tobacco product maintained strong YoY growth, while clothing, medicine, nonmetal mineral product, electrical equipment & materials and computer, telecom equipment & electronic equipment significantly improved in March. But plastic & rubber product, steel product, general equipment and automobile experienced a deterioration in profits. Looking forward, industrial profits may deteriorate in April due to the epidemic shock and gradually improve from May. The growth of industrial profits may further rebound in 2H22 as demand resumes and material costs decline. We expect the YoY growth of industrial profits may reach 10% in 2022. Strong income & profit growth in mining sector amid the inflation effect. Operation income of coal mining, petroleum & natural gas, non-ferrous metal ores & non-metal minerals jumped 60.8%, 46.6%, 24.4% and 11% YoY in 1Q22, compared to the growth of 55.1%, 41.4%, 23.5% and 11.9% YoY in 2M22. Their pre-tax profit growth reached 189%, 151.1%, 74.8% and 29.4% YoY in 1Q22, versus the corresponding growth of 155.3%, 156.7%, 49% and 30.5% in 2M22. Looking forward, commodity prices may remain high in 2Q22 and significantly decline in 2H22. We expect income & profit growth in mining sector should follow a similar pattern. Slowdown of income & profit growth in steel & chemical products amid rising material costs and slowing demand. Operation income in steel product and chemical product respectively rose 2.1% and 24.1% YoY in 1Q22, down from the growth of 3.6% and 27.7% YoY in 2M22. The pre-tax profits in steel product, chemical fibers and rubber & plastic product dropped 49.7%, 54.9% and 29.6%, respectively in 1Q22. Looking forward, 2Q22 may continue to see squeeze pressure as material costs may remain high and demand may remain weak. But 2H22 may see some improvement as material costs should decline and demand gradually stabilize. Improvement of profit performance in food, tobacco product, medicine, textile, clothing, electrical equipment & materials and computer, telecom equipment & electronic equipment due to stable demand & base effect. The pre-tax profits in the above seven industries respectively rose 15.2%, 10.8%, 12.3%, 15.3%, 24.4%, 16.2% and 15.7% YoY in March, compared to the YoY growth of 12.3%, 9.1%, -17.6%, 13.1%, 5%, 5.7% and -7.3% in 2M22. Deterioration of profit condition in papermaking, general equipment and automobile. Their pre-tax profits respectively dropped 35.2%, 18.5% and 15.3% YoY in March after decreasing 57.7%, 15.7% and 9.9% in 2M22. Industrial profit growth may slow in April due to the epidemic shock and gradually rebound from May with the 2022 growth at 10%. Due to the epidemic shock in Shanghai, industrial profits may deteriorate in April. The profit prospect may gradually improve from May as we expect the epidemic should gradually fade out. But high costs and weak demand may continue to restrain the growth of profits in 2Q22. 2H22 may see more significant improvement of industrial profit growth as material costs decline, domestic demand stabilizes and comparison base further decreases. We expect the industrial profit growth may reach 10% for 2022. China Economy Divergence of profit growth in Chinas industries 28 Apr 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 Figure 1: Operation Income Growth of Chinas Industries YoY(%) 2/3Y CAGR(%) 2019 2020 2021 2M22 1Q22 2021 2M22 1Q22 Mining 4.8 (10.6) 36.0 39.0 42.2 10.3 17.2 17.3 Coal 3.9 (12.0) 44.6 55.1 60.8 12.8 22.4 22.1 Petroleum & Natural Gas 1.8 (20.9) 33.3 41.4 46.6 2.7 12.5 14.0 Ferrous Metal Ores 13.1 7.1 48.3 (9.8) (10.3) 26.0 11.6 11.6 Non-ferrous Metal Ores (1.8) (3.1) 15.3 23.5 24.4 5.7 10.9 10.9 Non-metal Minerals 6.4 (1.6) 11.3 11.9 11.0 4.7 7.5 8.2 Manufacturing 4.3 (1.2) 22.1 12.4 11.0 9.8 10.7 9.6 Agricultural product processing 4.5 2.4 14.0 2.5 3.7 8.0 7.1 7.0 Food 7.0 2.4 9.7 10.0 8.7 6.0 7.2 7.3 Liquor, Beverage & Tea 6.9 (3.5) 13.4 16.8 13.3 4.6 7.9 7.6 Tobacco 8.3 5.1 7.1 9.1 10.1 6.1 12.5 10.2 Textile 0.9 (10.5) 12.8 13.7 9.4 0.5 3.2 1.0 Textile Apparel 1.5 (13.5) 9.0 12.2 9.3 (2.9) (0.7) (0.9) Leather, Furs & Related Products 4.2 (16.3) 8.5 12.9 10.8 (4.7) (0.6) 0.4 Timbers, Wood & Rattan Products 0.7 (7.2) 13.0 6.7 7.4 2.4 5.6 6.1 Furniture 4.4 (9.2) 18.0 6.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.3 Paper & Paper Products (3.6) (5.0) 18.0 4.7 4.5 5.9 5.9 4.6 Recording Media Printing 1.1 (6.5) 12.7 6.3 3.8 2.7 3.5 2.0 Cultural, Educational & Sports Goods 4.5 (7.5) 17.8 14.7 11.1 4.4 6.6 5.6 Petroleum & Coal Processing 3.0 (13.6) 32.6 24.2 24.5 7.0 10.3 10.7 Chemical Materials & Products (0.6) (6.9) 32.8 27.7 24.1 11.2 13.8 12.7 Medicines 8.4 1.6 24.4 2.3 5.5 12.4 8.8 8.7 Chemical Fibres 4.0 (13.8) 33.3 14.6 14.9 7.2 6.8 6.4 Rubber & Plastic Products 2.6 (4.0) 17.1 5.5 3.8 6.0 7.1 5.6 Non-metallic Mineral Products 12.5 (2.0) 16.8 9.5 9.4 7.0 8.5 8.1 Ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing 8.5 1.2 40.7 3.6 2.1 19.3 11.9 11.1 Non-ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing 7.6 1.5 35.8 26.4 24.4 17.4 17.4 17.0 Metal Products 5.5 (1.8) 27.7 12.2 10.7 12.0 11.4 9.5 General Purpose Machinery 3.5 0.8 20.3 5.9 2.7 10.1 8.6 6.0 Special Purpose Machinery 6.7 5.2 17.4 9.0 4.7 11.1 11.7 8.6 Automobile (4.2) 0.5 11.3 6.5 0.9 5.8 9.2 6.1 Other transport equipment 8.0 (1.6) 14.0 2.9 2.2 5.9 5.5 4.8 Electrical Machinery & Equip 5.5 0.4 27.5 25.2 23.9 13.1 17.2 15.0 Computers, Telecom Equip & Electronics 5.4 7.4 16.3 8.5 9.5 11.8 13.0 12.2 Instruments & Meters 7.4 2.1 18.9 10.3 7.4 10.2 10.9 7.4 Public utility 7.1 (0.6) 15.7 16.9 17.2 7.2 9.8 10.2 Power 5.9 0.4 14.2 15.6 16.0 7.1 9.4 10.0 Gas 16.6 (9.2) 27.1 26.6 26.2 7.4 11.6 10.9 Water 9.4 4.1 16.6 7.8 8.6 10.2 9.9 10.1 Source: NBS, CMBIGM 28 Apr 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 3 Figure 2: Total Profit Growth of Chinas Industries YoY(%) 2/3Y CAGR(%) 2019 2020 2021 2M22 1Q22 2021 2M22 1Q22 Mining 1.7 (31.5) 190.7 132.0 147.8 41.1 49.6 47.1 Coal (2.4) (21.1) 212.7 155.3 189.0 57.1 61.7 57.9 Petroleum & Natural Gas 1.8 (83.2) 584.7 156.7 151.1 7.3 31.3 33.4 Ferrous Metal Ores 396.5 74.9 113.5 15.5 17.4 93.2 85.4 75.4 Non-ferrous Metal Ores (28.8) 14.7 44.5 49.0 74.8 28.7 34.7 31.1 Non-metal Minerals 6.1 4.2 23.3 30.5 29.4 13.3 17.7 17.4 Manufacturing (5.2) 7.6 31.6 (4.2) (2.1) 19.0 20.6 15.5 Agricultural product processing 3.9 5.9 (9.2) (29.4) (22.9) (1.9) 1.7 3.4 Food 9.1 6.4 (0.1) 12.3 13.3 3.1 7.9 7.8 Liquor, Beverage & Tea 10.2 8.9 24.1 32.5 25.6 16.3 19.8 17.1 Tobacco 1.3 25.4 3.3 9.1 9.4 13.8 22.2 18.6 Textile (10.9) 7.9 4.1 13.1 14.0 6.0 3.7 (0.7) Textile Apparel (9.8) (21.3) 14.4 5.0 10.9 (5.1) (4.6) (3.5) Leather, Furs & Related Products (1.9) (20.7) 1.5 (2.7) 3.9 (10.3) (7.6) (4.3) Timbers, Wood & Rattan Products (6.2) (8.8) 13.1 1.6 3.7 1.6 (3.0) (1.0) Furniture 10.8 (11.1) 0.9 (15.2) 0.4 (5.3) (5.1) (3.3) Paper & Paper Products (9.1) 21.2 6.9 (57.7) (49.3) 13.8 (2.4) 0.6 Recording Media Printing 4.1 (5.7) (0.4) (11.2) (7.3) (3.1) (1.7) (5.3) Cultural, Educational & Sports Goods 9.9 (9.2) 19.2 10.5 7.1 4.0 1.3 1.9 Petroleum & Coal Processing (42.5) (26.5) 224.2 (39.6) (29.8) 54.4 (146.5) (185.1) Chemical Materials & Products (25.6) 20.9 87.8 27.3 18.4 50.7 36.8 31.6 Medicines 5.9 12.8 77.9 (17.6) (8.9) 41.7 12.8 13.2 Chemical Fibres (19.8) (15.1) 149.2 (32.7) (54.9) 45.5 10.6 5.9 Rubber & Plastic Products 12.0 24.4 (2.9) (31.8) (29.6) 9.9 8.7 5.3 Non-metallic Mineral Products 7.5 2.7 14.3 5.2 11.0 8.3 7.4 7.4 Ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing (37.6) (7.5) 75.5 (56.5) (49.7) 27.4 1.9 2.8 Non-ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing 1.2 20.3 115.9 63.8 52.9 61.2 96.0 82.7 Metal Products 5.9 4.1 28.7 (0.6) 0.0 15.7 12.7 9.7 General Purpose Machinery 3.7 13.0 8.3 (15.7) (17.0) 10.6 10.0 2.9 Special Purpose Machinery 12.9 24.4 10.2 4.0 4.8 17.1 32.6 18.9 Automobile (15.9) 4.0 1.9 (9.9) (11.9) 2.9 69.0 18.1 Other transport equipment 11.9 (1.5) (15.9) (34.7) (15.3) (9.0) (0.6) (0.8) Electrical Machinery & Equip 10.8 6.0 12.2 5.7 10.4 9.1 21.3 16.0 Computers, Telecom Equip & Electronics 3.1 17.2 38.9 (7.3) 2.8 27.6 93.3 29.7 Instruments & Meters 5.9 11.6 11.0 (14.9) (7.4) 11.3 20.9 9.3 Public utility 15.4 4.9 (41.9) (45.3) (30.3) (21.9) (12.9) (7.9) Power 19.0 3.4 (57.1) (49.1) (35.2) (33.4) (16.0) (12.2) Gas 0.6 7.7 18.4 (32.0) (14.6) 12.9 (2.2) 11.3 Water 5.6 16.5 4.8 (25.7) (5.0) 10.5 3.0 10.9 Source: NBS, CMBIGM 28 Apr 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 4 Figure 3: Gross Margin Ratio of Chinas Industries (%) 2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 Mining 28.1 27.2 25.9 34.6 38.7 Coal 28.8 27.5 29.6 38.3 39.7 Petroleum & Natural Gas 39.2 37.8 23.4 38.0 52.7 Ferrous Metal Ores 17.3 20.8 21.3 25.4 21.7 Non-ferrous Metal Ores 23.8 22.6 28.6 31.4 33.4 Non-metal Minerals 21.7 23.1 24.3 26.5 25.4 Manufacturing 15.9 15.7 16.0 16.0 15.3 Agricultural product processing 10.4 9.9 9.7 8.7 8.3 Food 21.6 22.5 22.6 21.3 21.1 Liquor, Beverage & Tea 31.0 32.7 34.2 31.8 35.6 Tobacco 64.2 65.9 68.6 69.9 73.5 Textile 10.9 11.4 12.4 12.2 10.9 Textile Apparel 15.2 15.0 14.9 15.0 14.8 Leather, Furs, Down & Related Products 13.5 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.4 Timbers, Wood, Bamboo & Rattan Products 12.0 11.3 10.9 10.6 9.4 Furniture 16.6 17.4 17.0 16.9 16.1 Paper & Paper Products 13.7 13.8 15.2 14.2 11.9 Printing, Reproduction of Recording Media 16.1 16.8 16.6 16.1 15.1 Cultural, Educational & Sports Goods 13.1 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.0 Petroleum, Coal & Other Fuel Processing 18.7 15.8 16.8 18.7 17.3 Chemical Materials & Products 16.8 16.2 17.0 18.4 17.2 Medicines 41.6 43.5 43.1 46.7 42.4 Chemical Fibres 9.7 9.0 8.9 11.6 7.9 Rubber & Plastic Products 14.1 14.9 17.0 15.8 14.3 Non-metallic Mineral Products 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.7 16.0 Ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing 11.1 8.1 7.8 8.4 6.1 Non-ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing 6.7 6.3 6.9 8.1 8.0 Metal Products 12.4 12.9 12.8 12.5 11.6 General Purpose Machinery 17.3 17.7 18.5 17.9 16.9 Special Purpose Machinery 18.9 20.9 21.8 21.0 20.9 Automobile 15.9 15.6 15.4 14.6 14.0 Other transport equipment 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.0 14.0 Electrical Machinery & Equip 15.9 16.2 15.9 14.7 13.2 Computers, Telecom Equip & Other Electronics 12.3 12.7 13.1 14.0 12.6 Instruments & Meters 22.2 24.4 25.2 25.2 23.4 Public utility 10.5 11.8 12.3 8.3 8.4 Power 9.4 10.9 11.4 6.8 7.6 Gas 13.9 13.1 14.0 12.4 9.0 Water 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.8 23.9 Source: NBS, CMBIGM 28 Apr 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 5 Figure 4: Total Profit to Operation Income Ratio of Chinas Industries (%) 2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 Mining 11.5 11.4 9.2 18.2 24.5 Coal 11.7 11.4 11.1 21.3 25.0 Petroleum & Natural Gas 18.7 18.5 3.9 18.5 35.5 Ferrous Metal Ores 2.2 6.2 9.6 13.3 17.1 Non-ferrous Metal Ores 11.3 9.0 13.3 16.6 21.5 Non-metal Minerals 7.9 8.7 9.3 10.7 8.7 Manufacturing 6.1 5.6 5.9 6.5 5.4 Agricultural product processing 4.4 4.0 4.2 3.5 2.8 Food 8.3 8.8 9.1 7.8 8.3 Liquor, Beverage & Tea 13.5 14.5 16.3 16.5 16.6 Tobacco 8.8 8.3 10.1 9.7 14.9 Textile 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.7 3.3 Textile Apparel 5.8 5.5 4.7 5.2 4.1 Leather, Furs, Down & Related Products 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.7 Timbers, Wood, Bamboo & Rattan Products 5.2 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.2 Furniture 6.0 6.5 6.1 5.4 3.9 Paper & Paper Products 5.5 5.1 6.4 5.9 3.5 Printing, Reproduction of Recording Media 6.6 6.6 6.4 5.8 4.2 Cultural, Educational & Sports Goods 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 4.0 Petroleum, Coal & Other Fuel Processing 4.7 2.6 2.1 4.8 4.1 Chemical Materials & Products 7.1 5.3 6.7 9.7 9.2 Medicines 12.8 13.0 14.1 21.4 15.4 Chemical Fibres 4.7 3.6 3.3 6.1 2.5 Rubber & Plastic Products 5.0 5.4 6.8 5.9 4.2 Non-metallic Mineral Products 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.4 6.6 Ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing 6.0 3.8 3.4 4.4 2.0 Non-ferrous Metal Smelting & Pressing 2.7 2.2 2.7 4.5 4.8 Metal Products 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 3.5 General Purpose Machinery 6.6 6.4 7.1 6.7 5.1 Special Purpose Machinery 6.8 7.5 8.6 8.1 7.4 Automobile 7.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.4 Other transport equipment 5.7 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.3 Electrical Machinery & Equip 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.3 4.4 Computers, Telecom Equip & Electronics 4.4 4.4 4.9 5.9 4.2 Instruments & Meters 9.5 9.7 10.7 10.5 7.0 Public utility 5.7 6.2 6.4 3.3 3.7 Power 5.2 5.9 6.0 2.3 3.4 Gas 7.9 6.8 7.7 7.3 5.1 Water 10.6 10.6 11.5 10.8 6.1 Source: NBS, CMBIGM 28 Apr 2022 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 6 Disclosures & Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) will deal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months HOLD : Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months SELL : Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months NOT RATED : Stock is not rated by CMBIGM OUTPERFORM : Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months MARKET-PERFORM : Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months UNDERPERFORM : Industry expected to
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