20231227_国泰君安_22-24年新能源电池行业需求浅析_39页.pdf

0755-23976610 S0880521080003 021-38674703 S0880517120001 0755-23976068 S08805190800012/CONTENTS01020304YWFUzQqNpMoPqOnOrMtMoP9P8QaQtRpPpNtQjMoPoMkPoMqP6MmMxPNZsOrNNZtQqM3014-01 11 2023 11 107.4/102.68.6%/7.3%39.2%/30%2023 1-11 842.6/830.434.5%/36.7%930 35%1 23 11 102.6 2 23 1-11 830.45-01 23 30%11 34.5%1-1130.8%2022 5.2pct 1-11 35.1%2022 7.5pct30%5pct 3 23 11 34.5%4 23 1-11 30.8%6-01 11 PHEV 32.3 4.2%89.5%31.5%1-11 243.9 83.5%29.4%1-11 A0085 11%2022 10.6pct A 233 30%2pct A0173 22.3%7.5pct B C 256 29 33%3.7%4.1pct 1pct 5 23 1-11 70.6%6 7-01 2023 119.7 21.8%1.6%2023 1-11 109.1 83.5%13%11 30629 34.4%17841 20.0%16928 19.0%4800 5.4%2440 2.7%2229 2.5%1921 2.2%1729 1.9%1726 1.9%1660 1.9%1372 1.5%1251 1.4%894 1.0%752 0.8%526 0.6%89000 100.0%7 1 11 8.9 8%8-01 2023 1-11 CR5 61.3%CR10 78.1%2022 3.8pct 5.9pct11 CR5 58.5%CR10 76.5%11 1888.9%301378 82432 71143 64834 4209941567 41030 31170 28280 21170 2093519659 18508 15959 15188 14850 1250611062 2 2023 2022 11 9-01 10 25-30 40 2022 8-10 10-15 40-5050 16%12%24%22%2022 27.6%2023 1-11 8 8-10 10-15 25-30 40-50 50 31%20%16%31%30%26%35.1%3 8-15 10-01 4 11-01 5 12-01 6 13-01 7 140215-02 2022 258.9 14.4%BEV 61%29.3%2023 1-9 219.3 29.7%BEV 67%46.9%2023 1-9 968.5 17.1%AECA AECA 8 2023 1-9 219.3 9 16-02 2022 22.9%BEV 61%2023 1-9 22.6%BEV 67%23Q3 25.0%AECA 11 AECA 10 17-02 10%AECA 8 2023 1-9 219 29.8%18-02 2023 9 14.8%9 14.1%202327.3%2022 9 35.3%2023 34.1%AECA 12 9 AECA13 2018-2022219-02(ID i4 X1 MG JATO 14 2023 8/10/Top10 20-02 2023 1-11 134.07 52%BEV 81.3%52%2023 1-11 1464.3 13%marklines 15 2023 1-11 134.07 16 marklines 21-02 2022 6.9%2.6pct BEV 81.1%2023 1-11 9.2%2.3pct BEV 81.3%marklines 17 2023 2.3pct 18 marklines 22-02 marklines 9 2023 1-11 TOP5 23-02 Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker,Q4 2022 19 2022 TOP1024-02 10 25-02 AECA 11 26-IRA-02 2023 12 1 FEOCFEOC 1 25%2 12 25%A B 25%A B B C 50%B C A C A B C FEOC A B 50%A B A B B C 25%C B A A B C FEOC A B 25%A B B C 40%B C A B 50%B C 50%A C 25%40%=10%A C 10%25%A B FEOC C FEOC 27-02 Model 3 Model Y ID.4$35,090$40,470$40,695 44,120 39,610 carscoops 20 2015-22H1 13 25%280329-03 2022 49.24%(43.13%)(7.63%)2022 50%(ACP)2022 4798 MW/12181 MWh 30-03 2023 1-11 163.9GW 152%2022 22 2023 1-11 2022 23 11 21.32GW 185%31-03 202348%/52%202361.79GW 258%67.14GW90%2023 1011135 24 2023 52%GW 320433-04 2022 48GW 85%2021 45%Solar Power Europe 2022 10 1GW Solar Power Europe 25 2022 26 10 GW 34-04 电价回落，光储去库存。2023 1-9 10.2GW 78%2022 41%23 1-9 85.4GW 26%9 7.6GW 1%光伏配储率 提升或 趋缓。(BVES)2022 75%(BMWi)10kW 7.5 kWh 27 GW 28 2023 GW35-04 2022 24.9GW 5%(UFLPA)2023 1-7 17GW 31%SEIA SEIA 29 2022 30 GW 36-04 IRA 3kWh ITC 2006 ITC()2022(5 kWh 3 kWh)ITC 2035 2033 2022 2023 10 10 5.024%10 3.891%3738THANKS FORLISTENING