资源描述
|2024 05 06 2024Q1 2024Q1 2023 41 2024 89 TMA TMA+30.7%+18.2%+12.3%+8.0%2021 Q3 OLED OLED iPad Pro 2024 135%42%85%65%36%TMA TMA 2024 OLED TMA S0680522080002 1+/2024-04-28 2 2024-04-16-32%-16%0%16%2023-05 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 300 2024 05 06 P.2 EPS P E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 600309.SH 5.36 6.05 6.90 7.90 16.62 14.73 12.91 11.28 002648.SZ 1.42 1.82 2.17 2.65 13.58 10.59 8.88 7.28 601058.SH-0.99 1.23 1.42 1.73 11.86 13.53 11.71 9.62 600160.SH 0.38 0.75 1.46-62.24 31.53 16.20-300054.SZ 0.23 0.50 0.66 1.01 103.00 47.77 35.73 23.46 002409.SZ 1.22 2.18 2.62 3.02 52.61 29.37 24.48 21.25 002643.SZ 0.82 0.84 1.01 1.22 14.04 13.70 11.40 9.43 300641.SZ-Wind Wind YWCXuNnQsRrQqOmPrMqPoP8OcMaQtRqQoMqMiNnNmRfQpPsNaQqQuNuOoOmRxNtPsO 2024 05 06 P.3 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.7 2.8 2.1.8 2.2.OLED.9 2.3.10 2.4.11 2.5.12 3.13 3.1.TMA.13 3.2.14 3.3.15 3.3.1.15 3.3.2.17 3.4.18 3.4.1.18 3.4.2.18 4.20 4.1.20 4.2.20 4.3.21 4.4.22 5.24 6.25 1 2024.5 2 5 4.7 3.7 4 PE TTM.8 5 PE TTM.8 6.8 7 OLED.9 8 RGB single vs RGB tandem stack OLEDs.10 9.11 10 2023 4 29-2024 4 29.13 11 TMA.14 12 TMA.14 13.16 14 2022/.16 2024 05 06 P.4 15 2030/.16 16.17 17.17 18%.17 19 2008 1-11.18 20 2023E.18 21.19 22 2023.19 23 MDI/.20 24 MDI/.20 25.21 26 C3.21 27.22 28.24 dlPwivRoJXPGevBKEIHMu5KvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MM9QVwMzzEb+IWtWgXxd8h3 2024 05 06 P.5 1.1.1.2023Q1 2024Q1 9.5%2024Q1 17.8%0.14pct 2023Q1 2024Q1 1 2024 Wind 2024 05 06 P.6 1.2.2023 41 2024 89 2023Q1 8 2024Q1 14+1271%+191%+124%+101%+673%+103%TMA+413%+175%+1087%+218%+152%+138%+110%+Q1+3131%+2272%+14990%+555%+298%+246%TMA 510 109 51 21 TMA 2024 05 06 P.7 2 5 4 Wind 1.3.2022 2023 2024+30.7%+18.2%+12.3%8.0%A+5.5%+0.8%3 Wind 板块 公司 年初至今涨幅 备注中国石油 45.5%中国海油 42.7%海油发展 42.8%中曼石油 38.0%博迈科 22.9%中海油服 22.5%正丹股份 252.8%百川股份 18.6%巨化股份 43.4%三美股份 24.9%金石资源 22.6%国家出台矿山整治政策，萤石价格稳步上行通用股份 56.5%赛轮轮胎 41.3%森麒麟 28.7%新乡化纤 29.1%吉林化纤 25.4%华峰化学 21.3%氨纶供给扩张放缓，拐点渐近龙佰集团 22.6%云天化 29.8%远兴能源 22.3%龙佰、云天化、远兴能源均为资源一体化（钛矿、磷矿、天然碱）的顺周期龙头，202 3年股息率分别为4.3%、4.9%、4.2%受地缘影响，I C E 布油从年初75.6美金/桶最高上涨至92.2美金/桶，叠加高股息受地缘影响，I C E 布油从年初75.6美金/桶最高上涨至92.2美金/桶，油服工程公司受益于高油价，有望出现盈利弹性截至目前，T M A 是近期以来景气度最高的化工品，年初至今价格由1.4万/吨上涨至3万元/第三代制冷剂进入配额执行年，年初至今价格大幅上涨，未来有望进入长景气周期轮胎企业海外建厂、进军欧美市场开始持续兑现，一季度确认业绩拐点下游出现马面裙等高增长需求，供给格局集中，市场预期粘胶长丝价格将上行资源+红利石油生产油服工程TMA氟化工轮胎化纤6070809010011012030004000500060007000800090002021/10/8 2022/2/8 2022/6/8 2022/10/8 2023/2/8 2023/6/8 2023/10/8 2024/2/8()2024 05 06 P.8 2.2.1.2021 2021 Q3 2023 14 PE PE TTM 2021 45 OLED OLED iPad Pro 4 PE TTM 5 PE TTM Wind Wind 2024 135%42%85%6 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024.4.26 2.22 5.00 7.00 10.00 224.0 2023.11.29 10.11 13.65 18.70 25.28 253.3 Wind 203040506070809010011021-09 22-05 23-01 23-09PE(TTM)1STDVAVG 1STDV1015202530354021-09 22-05 23-01 23-09PE(TTM)1STDVAVG 1STDV 2024 05 06 P.9 2.2.OLED OLED iPad Pro OLED OLED 6.8%OLED 50.8%2.2%2024 2026 OLED OLED 7 OLED Omdia 8.6 8.6 8.6 6 2.16 8.6 Tandem Stack 8.6 6 4 2024 05 06 P.10 8 RGB single vs RGB tandem stack OLEDs Omdia 2023 14 PE OLED OLED OLED Red Prime Green Host Red Host OLED UDC 2.3./DigiTimes 2024 40000 DRAM 10%2024 3 29 PI HBM 2024 05 06 P.11 3M 2026 25 2.4.2024+BCG 2024 1/3 30 2018 53 2023 170 CAGR 27%2028 500 9 BCG 2024 L-DL-L-D-D-L-2024 05 06 P.12 VD3 1 L-VA VE VB6 VD3 2023 20 2 5 2.5.10.3+191%5.0 101%4.4 106%2.9 27%2.1 124%1.6 1270%1 2018 1:0.5 1:1 2024 05 06 P.13 3.10 2023 4 29-2024 4 29 3.1.TMA TMA TMA PVC 52%40%7%TMA TMA PVC TMA PVC TOTM TOTM 105 PVC PVC PVC TOTM PVC TMA 105 PVC 1.79%/TMA/HAA TMA/TMA 0.74%-2.37%TMA 2006 9 TMA 87%2022 H2 Ineos Joliet 138%110%83%76%76%63%60%53%47%41%39%35%35%33%32%32%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.6TMAR32 R125R410a B1 MMA R134a 2024 05 06 P.14 2007 TMA 10 2021 TMA TMA 8.5 4 2.2 11 TMA/2006 9 19.3 13 2.9 21 22.2 2010 3 9.7 5 5.5 8 15.2 2011 3 9.7 5 8.0 8 17.7 2012 3 9.7 5 9.0 8 18.7 2013 3 9.7 5 8.8 8 18.5 2014 2 8.5 4 8.8 6 17.3 2015 2 8.5 4 8.8 6 17.3 _ TMA 2024 5 6 TMA 3.4-3.7/1.4/2021-2023 1965/5162/655/2 TMA 2024 4 26 TMA 15316/1235.31%12 TMA TMA-TMA-TOTM TMA 8.5 TMA 4 3.2.80%04000800012000160002021/4/10 2021/9/10 2022/2/10 2022/7/10 2022/12/10 2023/5/10 2023/10/10 2024/3/10/2024 05 06 P.15 0.05%0.1%VA VD3 2017 12 VA 1200/kg VD3 500/kg VD3 1 L-VA VE VB6 VD3 1 VA 6 VE VC VD3 VB5 VB6 Q10 VB12 3.3.3.3.1.6-9 2017-2018 R32 3-4/70/40/2024 05 06 P.16 13 European Commission R1234yf 4 R22 90%2022/1.0/1.4/6.0/29.3/92.3/1.0 1.32/65%2.03/2030 2.5%90%2%2030 125.6 1.1/67.1/57.4 3.49/5.37/14 2022/15 2030/5 4 2024 05 06 P.17 395 451 684 598 16 Wind 3.3.2.2010 2016 2018 750 2010-2011 5 17 18%2010 2011 2011 2021 2011 2010 2011 2011 2021 2011 25.21 638.49 394.86 9.59 5.73 6.87 11.71 259.33 451.42 2.78 3.15 5.15 8.40-0.00 2.39 4.88 7.64 111.55 684.44 4.73 1.49 0.69 5.52 92.41 597.60 0.58 0.64 1.09 4.80 266.73 179.86 2.7 1.7 0.43010020030040050060020 10-20 5-10 1-5 1 2024 05 06 P.18 3.4.3.4.1.2024 2022 2022 2023 294+6.5%445+9.3%2024 71.5 2024 34.5 2025 168 25 65 19 2008 1-11 20 2023E CCFA 2024 2023+12.9%-7.8%2022H2 2024/PB 0.92/1.30/2023 1350/740 0.25/0.30/2023 637/395/0.52/0.55 0.41/0.36 40 PTA P8+2023 1000 1020 PTA 1350 740 120 500 PTA PTA-3.4.2.2024 05 06 P.19 CCFA 2016 50.1 93.8 CAGR 9.4%2023 17.5%2023 163.5 11.8%124 2021 10 1.9%/13.1%2025 25.6 2023 9.8%2021-2023 11-13%21 22 2023 CCFA-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01020304050607080901002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOYCAGR=9.4%2024 05 06 P.20 4.4.1./175/185/61+1.1%/+6.0%/-2.2%136/139/47+1.5%/+1.5%/+0.4%+4.5%-6.7%2024 461.6 10.1%7.8%41.6 2.6%1.1%/2024 Wind MDI/MDI/TDI+2.6%/+9.7%/-13.9%+2.9%/-5.6%/-2.4%MDI Wind PDH+3.2%+4.1%+9.0%+8.3%2024 POE/2024-2025 2024 POE/POE 2024-2026 190/216/248 23 MDI/24 MDI/Wind Wind 4.2.C2 3 WTI 80 05000100001500020000250003000019/01 20/01 21/01 22/01 23/01 24/01 MDI 050001000015000200002500030000350004000019/01 20/01 21/01 22/01 23/01 24/01 MDI 2024 05 06 P.21 4 Brent 90 Q2 1#2024 4 6 C2 50 Q2 C2 3 C2 250 C6 C8 POE PAO C2 C3 C3 2024 5 80 C3 25 26 C3 Wind Wind-2024-2026 61.2/73.0/89.1 4.3.02004006008001000120014001600-60-40-200204060801001201402019-01-01 2021-01-01 2023-01-01WTI/05000100001500020000250002017-04-16 2019-04-16 2021-04-16 2023-04-16/2024 05 06 P.22 1102 2023Q2 220 700 2023Q4 300 200+25 EVA EVA 25 800 2-3 2022 70%13%16%MTO/CTO 2023Q4 1.46/5140 3/27 Wind 4.4.0.06 Q5500 2023 Q4 847/2024 Q1 765/9.68%106/14/37+32/+2/+22 4 28/DMF/7 64%/12%/40%52 4 28/PA6/DMC-2000-10000100020003000400050002019-01-01 2020-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01/2024 05 06 P.23 63%/41%/61%/46%/5%PA66 BDO 2024-2026 48.0/55.3/61.4 2024 05 06 P.24 5.OLED TMA 28 Wind 2024 5 4 Wind 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2023A 2024E 2025E 162.3 168.2 190.0 216.5 4%13%14%17 15 13 2798 62.9 35.8 48.0 55.3-43%34%15%18 13 11 633 30.6 47.9 61.2 73.0 56%28%19%14 11 9 649 63.0 56.5 84.5 135.5-10%50%60%22 14 9 1217 1.3 8.0 33.7 48.2 512%323%43%42 10 7 332 33.4 11.6 60.6 93.7-65%423%55%98 19 12 1135 5.5 7.2 46.8 65.3 31%553%40%91 14 10 656 17.6 10.1 12.3 18.0-43%22%46%25 21 14 254 7.2 7.6 7.9 9.4 6%3%19%14 14 11 107 11.6 9.0 11.9 16.9-23%32%42%31 24 17 283 5.2 5.8 10.4 12.5 11%79%20%53 29 24 305 3.9 2.2 4.7 6.3-43%111%34%101 48 36 224 1.1 0.8 2.0 2.7-27%165%33%111 42 32 86 2.5 1.3 2.4 3.2-46%82%32%36 20 15 49 1.2 0.2 0.7 1.6-80%195%126%153 52 23 37 6.4 6.1 8.7 11.0-5%43%27%33 23 18 203 1.7 0.6 1.8 3.4-67%223%90%73 23 12 41 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2-2%47%50%57 39 26 31 4.2 3.3 4.7 6.3-21%43%34%23 16 12 77 7.0 7.9 10.1 13.2 12%28%31%22 17 13 172 1.2 1.0 1.5 2.0-16%46%32%48 33 25 49 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.9 2%12%18%15 14 12 45 0.1-2.4 3.3 4.7 42%-29 21 15 69 1.1 0.6 1.6 6.2-44%157%296%72 28 7 44 2.6 1.7 2.5 3.5-36%50%42%24 16 11 40 3.2 4.5 6.3 8.7 40%40%39%42 30 21 187 3.8 1.9 3.5 4.6-50%81%32%32 18 13 62 23.8 9.4 27.2 35.8-60%188%32%68 24 18 638 2.2 3.5 7.2 12.4 57%106%73%58 28 16 201 4.9 2.8 8.3 11.5-42%195%39%93 31 23 259 3.0 1.8 5.5 7.6-39%201%38%50 17 12 92-2.1 10.9 18.6 24.4 71%31%20 12 9 219 9.9 5.7 7.1 9.9-43%26%39%20 16 12 114 0.6 0.1-98 7.6 7.7 9.9 12.5 1%30%26%13 10 8 103 60.2 45.2 47.6 49.9-25%5%5%8 8 7 371 8.0 13.7 20.9 24.5 71%53%17%20 13 11 271 13.3 30.9 40.3 46.6 132%30%16%18 14 12 546 2.9 13.9 21.9 26.9 377%58%23%24 15 12 330 2024 05 06 P.25 6.2024 05 06 P.26 6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 555 22 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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