2019年智能音箱报告.pdf

SMART SPEAKERCONSUMER ADOPTIONREPORTMARCH 2019U.S.One in Four U.S. Consumers Have Access to a Smart Speaker TodayMoving Past Early AdoptersThe number of smart speakers per user also rose more than 10% from 1.8 in 2018 to 2.0 in 2019. That suggests there are about 133 million smart speakers in use in the U.S. today. However, the expansion in smart speaker ownership has also brought in more casual users. Whereas over 60% of smart speaker owners in January 2018 identified themselves as daily users, less than 50% did so a year later. And, the number of device owners that claim to use their smart speakers never or rarely doubled to 26%. That seems like a natural evolution of early adopters being more frequent users than the early majority users coming afterward.Regardless, when more than one-in-four consumers are using a device and its voice assistant, the media, brands, game makers, service providers, independent developers, and even governments are sure to take notice. This recognition is playing out with more voice apps published. The number of Alexa skills rose by 2.2 times to nearly 60,000 in the U.S. alone in 2018. During the same period Google Actions grew at a slightly faster rate of 2.5 times to over 4,000.Smart speakers continued to be popular in 2018 keeping up a torrid pace of consumer adoption. In January 2018, there were 47.3 million U.S. adults with a smart speaker and by the end of the year that rose to 66.4 million. That means 26.2% of all U.S. adults have access to a smart speaker.PAGE 3SMART SPEAKER CONSUMER ADOPTION REPORT VOICEBOT.AI - All Rights Reserved 2019A Different Smart Speaker Ecosystem, but the Same LeadersVoicebot reported in the fall of 2018 that Phase 1 of smart speaker adoption was over and we were entering Phase 2. The second phase is characterized by the influx of more casual users but also by the introduction of new product form factors and new manufacturers. The most significant of these changes has been the emergence of smart displays. When Amazon was the only manufacturers of these voice-first devices with display screens, adoption was minimal. However, the introduction of Google Assistant enabled smart displays has helped drive sales, including Amazon, as it brought more attention to the product category. There are also many more manufacturers today than in 2017. Big names in audio such as Bose, Bang & Olufsen, and Klipsch all entered the smart speaker segment in 2018 offering more consumer choice. However, the most significant new smart speaker launch in 2018 was Apple HomePod. That appears to have captured a significant number of new sales in Q1 and Q2, but seems to have tapered off in Q3 and Q4. Although Apple was threatening to break up the smart speaker duopoly, it appears that Amazon and Google enter 2019 nearly as strong as they did in 2018 by maintaining 85% in total installed base market share. Smart Speakers are Solidly in the Early Majority MarketOne way we can put the current state of smart speaker adoption in perspective is to consider a standard technology adoption lifecycle first developed in the 1950s at Iowa State University and popularized in the 1990s by Geoffrey Moore.The model posits that about 16% of the user population will be “innovators” and “early adopters” followed by 34% that will be among the “early majority.” With more than 26% population adoption, smart speakers are securely in the “early majority” segment today. An interesting aspect of moving along the adoption curve is that later adopters have different preferences than early adopters. Two areas of difference are typically placing higher value in broader feature sets and integrations with other devices. You should expect to see smart speaker makers emphasize features, convenience of access, and third-party integrations more in the coming year. Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards2019U.S. Smart Speaker Adoption CurvePAGE 4SMART SPEAKER CONSUMER ADOPTION REPORT VOICEBOT.AI - All Rights Reserved 2019Source: Voicebot Smart Speaker Consumer Adoption Report Jan 2019Smart Speaker OwnershipThe percent of U.S. adults that own smart speakers rose 40.3% in 2018 climbing from 47.3 million to 66.4 million during the year. This increase means more than one-in-four U.S. adults now have access to a smart speaker based voice assistant. We have moved past the notion that smart speakers may be a novelty as they are now in such widespread use that one-in-three smartphone owners have one. It took fewer than four years for smart speakers to achieve 25% adoption from the initial introduction restricted to Amazon Prime members. And, it Total US Adult Population253 MILLIONJan 2018 / 47.3 MILLIONOne-Year Growth39.8%Jan 2019 / 66.4 MILLIONU.S. Adult Smart Speaker Installed Base January 2019U.S. Smart Speaker Owners Rise 40% in 2018was under two years from the time when there was more than one manufacturer participating in the category to reach that milestone. CES 2019 reaffirmed that including a smart voice assistant is no longer a differentiator for home speaker makers. Like Bluetooth before it, making speakers smart has become a must-have feature. We now have dozens of smart speaker models from numerous manufactures, but soon will have hundreds to choose from even if 85% of users favor just two device makers.PAGE 6SMART SPEAKER CONSUMER ADOPTION REPORT VOICEBOT.AI - All Rights Reserved 2019Source: Voicebot Smart Speaker Consumer Adoption Report Jan 2019Amazon continued to have the leading installed base of smart speakers in 2018 despite its market share shrinking from about 72% to 61%. Google was a big mover shifting from 18.4% to nearly 24%, accounting for precisely half of Amazons market share decline. The “Other” category was led by Apple and Sonos, and overall the non-Amazon, non-Google device market share rose by 50% over 2017. More than half of this growth is attributed to Apple HomePod which had a strong debut in the first half of 2018, but then tapered off in sales as the year went on. There were several new smart speakers introduced in 2018 and many focused on sound quality. It appears consumers are open to adding these higher end smart speakers to their device collection as over three-quarters of “Other” category smart speaker owners also report having either an Amazon Echo or Google Home device. Sonos went public in 2018 and was clear in its investor documents that voice assistant integration was critical to the companys future competitiveness. However, the inability to launch a Google Assistant enabled speaker may have hurt its appeal with consumers as the companys overall smart speaker market share fell during the year. We can surmise that most of the Sonos fans that wanted an Alexa-based speaker already bought their device in 2017. As the overall market expanded in 2018, few additional Sonos One devices were purchased and the companys relative market share fell. Adding Google Assistant support in 2019 may help reverse this market share slide. U.S. Smart Speaker Market Share by Brand January 2018 & 201961.1%Amazon23.9%Google15.0%Other71.9%Amazon18.4%Google9.7%Other20192018Amazon Echo Leads But Google Home Narrows the GapPAGE 7SMART SPEAKER CONSUMER ADOPTION REPORT VOICEBOT.AI - All Rights Reserved 2019Source: Voicebot Smart Speaker Consumer Adoption Report Jan 2019Amazon Echo Dot is the most widely adopted smart speaker by a significant margin. The sub $50 list price device is frequently available for less than $30 and refurbished models can be acquired for under $20. This device has proven more popular than Amazons higher priced offerings such as the Echo, Echo Plus, Echo Spot, and Echo Show. In the Google portfolio, the Home and Home Mini appear to be equally popular with 11.2% share each. There are likely to be more Home Minis in use today in terms of total devices as this analysis reflects the number of users with access to a device. If you have one Home and three Minis, you are counted as one in each category. And, this may be common as 87% of Google smart speaker owners report having both devices. Apple HomePod and Sonos One lead with smart speaker market share in the “Other” category. It appears that smart displays with Google Assistant along with the introduction of Apple HomePod in February 2018 were the key drivers leading to a 50% growth in this category during the year. Keep in mind that aside from HomePod, the “Other” category devices all have Alexa or Google Assistant on board, so the dominance of Amazon and Google voice assistants extends beyond their own products. Low Price Speakers Account for 43% of MarketAmazon Echo Dot31.4%Echo or Plus23.2%3.0% / Amazon Echo Show3.5% / Echo SpotGoogle Home11.2%Home Mini11.2%1.2% / Home Hub0.2% / Home MaxOther10.0%AppleHomePod2.7%Sonos One2.2%U.S. Smart Speaker Market Share by Device - January 2019PAGE 8SMART SPEAKER CONSUMER ADOPTION REPORT VOICEBOT.AI - All Rights Reserved 2019Source: Voicebot Smart Speaker Consumer Adoption Report Jan 2019The Amazon Echo Show debuted as the first smart speaker with a display screen now known as a smart display in June 2017. Later in 2017, Amazon also launched the smaller Echo Spot. With Amazon as the single smart display manufacturer, only 2.8% of all smart speaker owners had adopted one of the devices in 2017. This figure rose rapidly in early 2018 as Amazon engaged in aggressive discounting of the devices and then later in the year after manufacturers starting introducing smart displays driven by Google Assistant. By year-end 2018, smart displays were owned by 13.2% of smart speaker owners, a 558% growth rate in total installed base from about 1.3 million to 8.7 million. Smart Display Ownership Rises Quickly, Amazon LeadsU.S. Smart Display Adoption by Smart Speaker OwnersJanuary 2018May 2018September 2018January 20192.8%5.9%7.1%13.2%67.0%AmazonAlexa33.0%GoogleAssistantU.S. Smart Display Market Share 2018Today, smart displays in the U.S. are either Alexa or Google Assistant enabled regardless of the manufacturer. Although Amazon doesnt have many third-party smart display OEM partners, it has maintained 67% market share in the category. That means Google Assistant enabled devices rose from zero to one-third market share in less than six months. This may have risen faster if Googles smart display, the Home Hub, had launched earlier in the year. Despite not appearing for sale until October 2018, Home Hub captured 38.5% of Google Assistant smart display sales. PAGE 9SMART SPEAKER CONSUMER ADOPTION REPORT VOICEBOT.AI - All Rights Reserved 2019Source: Voicebot Smart Speaker Consumer Adoption Report Jan 2019Source: Voicebot Smart Speaker Consumer Adoption Report Jan 2019Maybe the biggest change in the composition of smart speaker owners is the influx of more casual users of the devices. Nearly 64% of device owners in January 2018 reported being daily users. In January 2019, that number fell to only about 47%. Monthly users were fairly similar with the offsetting difference being the infrequent users which rose from 13% to over 26%. This seems like a natural progression. Early adopters of technology are more likely to incorporate them quickly into their daily habits than consumers that tend to adopt later. However, this will be a metric to monitor going forward. Three out of four smart speaker owners still report being monthly active users. As long as we see that type of consistent usage along with continued growth, smart speakers will continue to grow in importance as a voice assistant channel for consumer engagement. 12.9%NEVER OR RARELY MONTHLY DAILY26.5%23.5%63.6%26.1%47.4%2019 2019 201920182018 2018New Smart Speaker Owners are Less Likely to be Daily UsersU.S. Smart Speaker Frequency of Use 2018PAGE 10SMART SPEAKER CONSUMER ADOPTION REPORT VOICEBOT.AI - All Rights Reserved 2019Source: Voicebot Smart Speaker Consumer Adoption Report Jan 2019Over 40% of smart speaker owners now have multiple devices. That is up from 34% in 2018. Households with two, three, and more than five devices all rose in 2019 as a percentage of all smart speaker owners. This change suggests that many households are finding utility in smart speakers being nearby.The data indicate that the industry sold about 48 million smart speakers in the U.S. in 2018 bringing the total in use to about 133 million up from about 85 million at the end of 2017. Of the 19 million new smart speaker owners, 31% have purchased multiple devices. That compares to 49% of U.S. adults that have owned smart speakers for more than a year and have multiple devices. 58.1%1 device23.2%2 devices14.4%3 devices3.2% / 4 devices0.7% / 5-10 devices0.4% / 10+ devices65.7%1 device19.3%2 devices8.0%3 devices3.3% / 4 devices2.3% / 5-10 devices1.4% / 10+ devices2018 2019Smart Speakers Per Household - U.S.Smart Speakers Per Household Rise to 2.0PAGE 11SMART SPEAKER CONSUMER ADOPTION REPORT VOICEBOT.AI - All Rights Reserved 2019 Source: Voicebot Smart Speaker Consumer Adoption Report Jan 2019