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Hot trends in construction A new era of opportunities September 20182 Roland Berger Focus Hot trends in construction Management summary NEW BUILDINGS Materials have always driven key evolutions in the build- ing sector. Wood is now fashionable for its isolating and esthetic properties. Besides the rehabilitation of wood, the image of concrete is also changing. New concrete blocks can be imbricated easily and cut CO 2emissions in half. The European Union wants to have new build- ings approach energy neutrality by 2020. Keeping up with such requirements is a challenge for many profes- sionals in all segments of the construction value chain, in particular for smaller players. NEW CONSTRUCTION PROCESSES Other changes are revolutionizing the construction indus- try. BIM (Building Information Modeling), combined with the maturing of technologies such as the IoT (Internet of Things), VR (Virtual Reality) or 3D printing, are bringing construction into a new era. Modular construction makes it possible to provide a quality response to urgent needs in record time, at a reasonable cost e.g. temporary hous- ing for refugees in Germany or France. Longtime con- straints of the construction sector almost disappear with modular construction: accidents, bad weather, regulatory compliance issues are problems no more. NEW CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPS B2B and B2C relationships are shifting and new players like Amazon or Alibaba are challenging traditional dis- tribution models. This is just the beginning: two in every three people will be buying online by 2020. This digital era is challenging the traditional selling business model. End customers, who are increasingly educated and demanding, play a role in this paradigm shift that also affects designers, craftsmen and retailers. These trends are structural and will permanently trans- form the complete value chain of the construction in- dustry. Construction industry players who fail to adapt will most likely disappear. 2 Roland Berger Focus Hot trends in construction The building sector accounts for a value of USD 10.4 trillion in 2017 and that figure is expected grow to USD 18 trillion by 2030. There are many reasons for such rapid growth, but a few hot trends are key contributors on the supply side. We take a closer look at them in this report.Hot trends in construction Roland Berger Focus 3 Contents Cover photo: iStockphoto / A330Pilot 1. The building of tomorrow .4From grey and dumb to green and smart. 2. The construction process of tomorrow . 10New trends requiring new construction methods. 3. The customer relationships of tomorrow . 16A digital era that changes relationships.Section 1: The building of tomorrow From grey and dumb to green and smart. 4 Roland Berger Focus Hot trends in constructionHot trends in construction Roland Berger Focus 5 Builders and construction companies are called upon to think “green“ and “smart“ a once-in-a-lifetime oppor- tunity to escape commoditization and create superior value for players who embrace that trend. A THINK GREEN With society requiring increasingly energy-efficient, renewable and health-neutral materials, a flood of leg- islation is expected in the coming years to boost eco-friendly construction. Beyond the competitive dan- ger of a wait-and-see attitude, building materials man- ufacturers and construction companies will soon face legal barriers if they dont move swiftly. Under the Euro- pean Energy Efficiency Directive, “EU governments should only purchase buildings which are highly energy efficient“. The market shares of players who can offer cost-effective materials and construction methods will see fast growth. Standards are evolving as well. Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED), established in 1998 in the United States, laid the foundations for current construction. Assessment criteria include energy effi- ciency, water efficiency, heating efficiency, the use of locally sourced materials and the reuse of surplus ma- terials. In France, another standard, BBC (low energy consumption building) set a maximum consumption target for new residential buildings (50 kWhPE / m / year) three times lower than a decade ago. With the 2010 EPBD (Energy Performance of Buildings Directive), Eu- rope is planning for all new buildings to be nearly ze- ro-energy by December 31, 2020, and two years earlier for buildings occupied and owned by public authorities. All new public buildings must therefore be nearly ze- ro-energy by 2018. 1Complying with these objectives requires using new materials and implementing recy- cling processes. NEW MATERIALS There is a general consensus that the use of wood in con- struction should be massively increased. But for other materials, there are two conflicting options: should they be improved or completely replaced? European Commission 1 European Commission “Buildings are responsible for 40% of energy consumption and 36% of CO 2emissions in the EU. While new buildings generally need fewer than 3 to 5 liters of heating oil per square meter per year, older buildings consume about 25 liters on average. “6 Roland Berger Focus Hot trends in construction Source: National statistics 2022 2016 2010 CAGR 2016-2022; % United Kingdom France Spain Italy Belgium Netherlands Norway Sweden 59.83 2,081 451.1 367.2 335.4 295.3 172.9 151.8 83.18 80.96 65.37 2,532 50.18 1,773 323.2 297.8 298.2 246.8 143.7 144.1 65.35 74.71 52.62 2,096 38.59 1,586 349 6 228.1 216.2 233.9 192.3 183.4 55.56 76.81 37.76 1,936 Germany Eastern Europe Western Europe Europe 2.55 xxx 2.31 4.88 3.03 1.69 2.60 2.67 0.74 3.51 1.15 3.15 2.74 A: Construction industry revenue trends in European countries. EUR mHot trends in construction Roland Berger Focus 7 2 Euromonitor / 3 European Commission / 4 European Parliament / 5 Roland Berger Business Intelligence / 6 Statista There are no practical limits to wooden construction, although there is a psychological one. New wood tech- nologies increasingly enable wood to compete with arti- ficial or sophisticated materials. Brikawood, for exam- ple, is a brick made of wood that is easy to assemble, offers a high level of insulation and costs 20% less than a traditional brick. Since the adoption in September 2013 of a European directive called “A new EU forest strategy: for forests and the forest-based sector“, de- signed to guide policy to 2030, the production of round- wood is expected to increase every year. A multitude of new materials is emerging in the con- struction market (mycelium, ashcrete, hampcrete, bam- boo, etc.). Nevertheless, the materials already on the market are being reengineered to make them greener and cheaper. Concrete is the most widely used synthetic material, but it is held responsible for about 5% of glob- al CO 2emissions. However, a team of interdisciplinary researchers at University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) has designed a unique solution that may elimi- nate concrete-related greenhouse gases. The plan is to create a closed-loop process: capturing carbon from power plant smokestacks and using it to create a new building material concrete that would be applied with a 3D printer. “Green thinking“ also goes along with increasing peoples quality of life. In its high-rise build- ing at La Dfense in Paris, Saint-Gobains employees will benefit from a new kind of comfort. They will experi- ment with smart glazing that can adapt to outside brightness thanks to a very low-voltage electrical flow, as well as a new air purification system. MORE RECYCLABILITY In 2016, construction generated 880 million tons of waste in Europe. 2Construction and demolition account for approximately 30% of all waste generated in the EU. 3It includes concrete, bricks, gypsum, wood, glass, metals, plastic, solvents, and other materials, most of which can be recycled. There is a growing amount of demolition, ren - ovation and deconstruction activity. The renovation po- tential of buildings in the EU is expected to total 110 mil - lion buildings in the coming years. 4According to the 2016 Directorate-General for Internal Policies report “Boosting Building Renovation: What potential and value for Eu- rope?“, “The current renovation rate of existing buildings is low, with only about 1-2% of the building stock renovat - ed each year, although it is estimated that renovation ac- counts for 57% of all construction activity. The vast major- ity of these renovations do not use the full potential energy savings that could be achieved.“ At the same time, deconstruction instead of demolition makes it possible to recover up to 80% of the materials rather than disposing of everything. 5This trend is making a major contribution to the broader objective of cutting annual primary energy consumption in Europe by 30% by 2030. BE SMART End users are not only counting on energy-efficient and cost-effective final products over the long term, they are also expecting builders to create buildings with embedded services. The global Smart Home market is expected to double in volume within 5 years and exceed a value of EUR 45 billion in 2022. 6Consumer spending on Smart Home systems and services should rise by 70% to 80% in North America, Asia and Europe by 2022, with North America leading the trend, followed by Asia and then Europe. OPPORTUNITY FOR PROFESSIONALS The Smart Home and home automation markets are still in their infancy and need to be structured: prime movers will gain a sizeable competitive advantage. There is still a lot to do: people spend 80% of their time indoors. 8 Roland Berger Focus Hot trends in construction 7 Statista The Smart Home market penetration rate is estimated to be only 5% of new constructions in Europe in 2017, while it is expected to reach 20% by 2022. B The home automation market penetration rate should grow from 1.5% to 9%. 7This second path aims at get- ting rid of useless gadgets by replacing them with arti- ficial intelligence for buildings to become self-learning. Though all elements in a building can be affected by Smart Home technologies, some of them are more sus- ceptible, such as doors, windows, and ventilation and water consumption systems. Bouygues, for example, has launched Wizom, a program of 1,000 connected homes. People can easily control their heating from their smartphone or report an elevator failure in real time. In the long term, the company wants to equip all of its new real estate programs with home automation. Arkema has launched its Smart House, “a life-size labo- ratory for the Arkema groups researchers and scien- tists“ aimed at innovating and anticipating changes in the building industry, in partnership with key players in the sector such as Caldeo, Total and Velux, as well as public entities (European Union, French government). Every floor of this house is a true laboratory dedicated to Smart Home R&D. OPPORTUNITY FOR CONSUMERS The B2C Smart Home market (home automation, secu- rity, home entertainment, ambient assisted living and energy management) was created a few years ago by IoT but most of the potential still lies ahead. C Domotics and IoT enhance security, enable better ener- gy management, offer new types of entertainment and generate savings. Smart Home is not just about having a connected home (Smart Home devices), but also a clever one (home automation). B: Smart Home is becoming part of our daily life and an important market for professionals. in % 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Smart Home Security Energy management Home entertainment Home automation Ambient assisted living 5 10 15 20Hot trends in construction Roland Berger Focus 9 C: Smart Home affects the entire house. Tr ave l Wearables Health Energy Appliances Multimedia (TV, sound, etc.) Security and safety (alarm, cameras, etc.) Outside the home Convenience (heating, radiators, etc.) Unlocking doors Hot trends in construction Roland Berger Focus 9 Lighting Outdoor10 Roland Berger Focus Hot trends in construction Section 2: T omorrows construction methods New trends require new construction methods. 10 Roland Berger Focus Hot trends in constructionHot trends in construction Roland Berger Focus 11 Building techniques on construction sites are undergo- ing major upheavals, such as BIM, modular construction or 3D printing. Its a radical change for builders and manufacturers. BUILDING INFORMATION MODELING Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a platform that consolidates and links up all of the data relevant to a given building, thus producing a digital model of the whole structure. D It allows every player involved in a construction project to take a virtual walk-through of the building during the planning and design phase, enabling any necessary modifications to be made there and then. It also permits construction firms to make early decisions on what ma- terials to use and which companies to contract the work out to all on the basis of information and quotes avail- able the BIM system. Cloud-based computing makes BIM possible with rapid simulation and real-time updates on design changes and project timelines. Global infrastructure spending is expected to exceed USD 9 trillion a year by 2025. 8A con- servative estimate is for BIM to reduce costs by 10%. OPERATIONAL IMPACT BIM will impact all stakeholders throughout the entire process, from the design and engineering phase to con- struction and building operations. Each party will have to collaborate on projects in new and different ways, us- ing access controls to ensure that only one party is changing design or project management information at any one time. BIM redefines the entire value chain. Decision-making by architects and developers will be strengthened by BIM. Other players will see their roles in the value chain challenged and risk entering a spiral of “commoditiza- tion“ if they dont make a significant effort to anticipate change especially among building materials manufac- turers and distributors. At the same time, the competitiveness of contractors will depend on their ability to use BIM to optimize task scheduling and resource utilization on construction sites. For instance, BIM saved Swedish construction company Skanska two months in a complex hospital ex- pansion project in the US, and German rail operator Deutsche Bahn is using BIM for infrastructure projects and expects it to cut costs by 10 percent. The global market for BIM software, consulting and oth- er solutions was USD 2.7 billion in 2014, and is expected to reach USD 11.5
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